Armagedon Road: Iran VS The World (2010 Edtition)

[News Hound]

The Point of No Return

For the Obama administration, the prospect of a nuclearized Iran is dismal to contemplate— it would create major new national-security challenges and crush the president’s dream of ending nuclear proliferation. But the view from Jerusalem is still more dire: a nuclearized Iran represents, among other things, a threat to Israel’s very existence. In the gap between Washington’s and Jerusalem’s views of Iran lies the question: who, if anyone, will stop Iran before it goes nuclear, and how? As Washington and Jerusalem study each other intensely, here’s an inside look at the strategic calculations on both sides—and at how, if things remain on the current course, an Israeli air strike will unfold.
By Jeffrey Goldberg

Don't read this if you enjoy sleeping at night.

[Blackthorn]

Scary stuff. We live in interesting times. And we may die in them, too.

[n11pilot]

Scary stuff. We live in interesting times. And we may die in them, too.

Agreed.

Israel is up against a very short window here. The reactors are expected to be fueled within days which means that any chance of a clean strike by the IDF has to come before then. After the reactors are fueled any type of attack on them would chance the release of radiation that could spread through the Persian Gulf area.
The Obama administration is reassuring Israel that any type of nuke weapon that the Iranians could develop is still a year away. I have my doubts, but even if that timeline is correct waiting a year could be too late for Israel.


http://homelandsecuritynewswire.com/us- ... -year-away

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2010/08/ ... 282283047/

[News Hound]

Fuel Shipments Arrive at Iran's First Nuclear Power Plant

Despite U.N. sanctions, Iranian and Russian engineers start loading fuel into Iran's first nuclear reactor, as Russia vows it will prevent Tehran's atomic ambitions from evolving into a nuclear weapons program.

"Obama Faces Middle East 'Train Wreck' as Iran Builds Nuclear Program," By Judson Berger Published August 20, 2010 |

[n11pilot]

I'm not exactly filled with optimism since the day after the Iranians fuel up a nuke reactor, they unveil an unmanned bomber drone they have dubbed "The Ambassador of Death".

Released data on the craft suggests that it cannot reach Israel but it could reach the remaining US troops in Iraq. This is just the latest in the ever growing list of sabre rattling hardware produced in Iran. In my opinion the Iranians are making full use of assistance in this weapon development by Russia, North Korea, and The People's Republic of China.

I hope the Obama administration has a plan to counter this threat other than asking all wire services to refer to the "Ambassador of Death" as the "Iranian Dove of Peace".


http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/08/22 ... ed-bomber/

[Cousi]

I have comments about this that will be in a forthcoming article.

[Irish Fist]

CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush Enters Persian Gulf As CIA Veteran Robert Baer Predicts September Israel-Iran War Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/17/2011 16:02 -0400

One look at the most recent naval update maps shows that in addition to global insolvency (courtesy of the broke European dominoes and a potentially technically broke US), a UK on the verge of a parliamentary scandal courtesy of a media baron whose empire is crumbling, and not to mention yet another downward inflection point in the global economic slowdown courtesy of the end of QE2 and no replacement yet, market watchers may have to start factoring in geopolitical risk yet again. While the fact that Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, and now Turkey, are ever more increasingly on edge is apparently something Mr. Market has managed to internalize, when it comes to geopolitics everyone stops to listen when renewed Iran-Israel rumblings reappear. Which may just be the case. As the most recently updated naval map from Stratfor demonstrates, the CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush has just entered the Persian Gulf, the first time a US aircraft carrier has passed through the Straits of Hormuz in months. What is also notable is that the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya: this is odd since the coast of Tripoli had been left unattended for many weeks by US attack ships. And topping it all off is that a third aircraft carrier, the CVN 73, is sailing west from the South China seas, potentially with a target next to CVN 76 Ronald Reagan which is the second carrier in the Straits of Hormuz area. Three carriers in proximity to Iran would be extremely troubling, yet fit perfectly with the story of CIA veteran Robert Baer, the man played by George Clooney in Syriana, who as Al Jazeera reports, appeared on KPFK Los Angeles, warning that Israeli PM Netanyahu is "likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future." It gets worse: "Masters asked Baer why the US military is not mobilising to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war." The punchline: "There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained." For the betting public out there, an September CL call may not be the dumbest trade possible...

A third world war is just a matter of time...

[Major Eaton]

My reports suggest the last weekend in Sept...

[Super Ordinary Guy]

My reports suggest the last weekend in Sept...

Should we throw a End Of The World cookoff/party???

[Major Eaton]

Should we throw a End Of The World cookoff/party???

If you think I'm going to brave the TSA just to fly across the nation to hang out with one of my favorite online chefs and patriot...

It better include a beverage too...

[DanielJones]

I do wonder if Iran would actually drop a nuke on Jerusalem seeing that one of their most holy places is the Temple Mount, or to Muslims Haram Ash-Sharif, right in the heart of the city. Among Sunni Muslims, the Mount is widely considered to be the third holiest site in Islam. Supposedly the very spot where their most beloved prophet ascended directly to Heaven. Would they risk the wrath of their own just to destroy Jerusalem? There is no way they could destroy the city without doing harm to their Holy site. An interesting little conundrum.

Cheers!

Dan

[n11pilot]

I do wonder if Iran would actually drop a nuke on Jerusalem seeing that one of their most holy places is the Temple Mount, or to Muslims Haram Ash-Sharif, right in the heart of the city. Among Sunni Muslims, the Mount is widely considered to be the third holiest site in Islam. Supposedly the very spot where their most beloved prophet ascended directly to Heaven. Would they risk the wrath of their own just to destroy Jerusalem? There is no way they could destroy the city without doing harm to their Holy site. An interesting little conundrum.

Cheers!

Dan

Dan, if we were dealing with stark raving sane folks I would agree with you. The trouble with fanatics is that they act like starry eyed amateurs on drugs, they aren't predictable. I'd say its a toss up.

[Blackthorn]

I do wonder if Iran would actually drop a nuke on Jerusalem seeing that one of their most holy places is the Temple Mount, or to Muslims Haram Ash-Sharif, right in the heart of the city. Among Sunni Muslims, the Mount is widely considered to be the third holiest site in Islam. Supposedly the very spot where their most beloved prophet ascended directly to Heaven. Would they risk the wrath of their own just to destroy Jerusalem? There is no way they could destroy the city without doing harm to their Holy site. An interesting little conundrum.

Cheers!

Dan

Dan, if we were dealing with stark raving sane folks I would agree with you. The trouble with fanatics is that they act like starry eyed amateurs on drugs, they aren't predictable. I'd say its a toss up.

You hit the nail on the head, Pilot.

[Eric Renderking Fisk]

I reticently read Anthony Bourdain's "Medium Raw" and in it he talks about how his daughter changed his life and quoted JFK: "Having a child is to give fate a hostage." I'm reminded of that again while reading news items about Iran and how things have changed dramatically in the past couple of years. Israel has gone on the record time and again saying that they won't tolerate an enemy rouge nation possessing atomic weapons and have destroyed facilities in other countries in the past.

If there's any question if they are willing and capable of destroying the facilities in Iran, all anyone has to do is look at what they did to Iraq when their own facilities were about to go on line.

Could a "hot" Iran be good for the region? I believe that there are some neighboring countries who are secretly wishing they would destroy the uranium enrichment factories.

[n11pilot]

I reticently read Anthony Bourdain's "Medium Raw" and in it he talks about how his daughter changed his life and quoted JFK: "Having a child is to give fate a hostage." I'm reminded of that again while reading news items about Iran and how things have changed dramatically in the past couple of years. Israel has gone on the record time and again saying that they won't tolerate an enemy rouge nation possessing atomic weapons and have destroyed facilities in other countries in the past.

If there's any question if they are willing and capable of destroying the facilities in Iran, all anyone has to do is look at what they did to Iraq when their own facilities were about to go on line.

Could a "hot" Iran be good for the region? I believe that there are some neighboring countries who are secretly wishing they would destroy the uranium enrichment factories.

Iran has been a difficult issue for our Arab "allies" as far back as the 1980s. Even the Saudis view Iran as a problem waiting to happen. Unfortunately our Saudi "allies" have tied their own hands on the issue by supporting large segments of their population's interest in radical Islam. It is hard to criticize Iran for doing what the Wahabists are advocating with impunity inside Saudi Arabia.